Lately there has been a lot of chatter about bubble in Silicon Valley. This article by Nick Bilton in vanity fair is the latest in that chatter. No doubt there is a preponderance of getting oneself in The Unicorn Club. The burn rates among startups are high. @pmarca raised the cash burn concern an year ago but has been mocking end of world on all the recent dips. Even the fine folks at Hacker News are discussing this.

May be it is. Having lived thru the .com bust my observations in favor and against are

In favor

  • Have you seen the traffic during commute hours. I used to do Fremont – Mountain View during 99-01 and even with the old 237-880 crossover it wasn’t so bad. Now a days it is a constant zoo from 7am-10am.
  • Rents are too damn high. Check this new apartment complex close to Apple http://www.nineteen800.com/ 2 bed 2 baths for > $4000 in Cupertino which can only be called a town with High API schools + Apple and nothing else.
  • Job Market is tight. Try to find good talent.

Against

  • Where are the IPOs that were happening left and right. Who remembers VA Linux. Read this CNet story for fun. I understand it is much difficult to take a company public and most take the acquisition exit. But still I don’t see that crazy amount of activity.
  • It is much cheaper to do startups with this thing called cloud.
  • My highly unscientific 101-Billboard Index hasn’t started flashing red yet. During the dot com days somewhere after Marsh road exit and all the way to SF, there used to be so many billboards on both sides of 101 that you couldn’t see past them.

Will be interesting to watch the next few years.